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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."